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Voter Turnout Expected to be Modest at Best

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Most experts are predicting light voter turnout in Tuesday’s primary election.  Franklin & Marshall College political science professor Terry Madonna says that’s especially the case now that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has suspended his presidential campaign.  “25 – 30% among Republicans, and maybe 20 – 25% among Democrats,” Madonna hypothesizes.  “I think if it reaches that it will be a good day.” 

Terry Madonna

Terry Madonna

He says legislative – and even congressional – primaries aren’t typically big draws at the ballot box.  “We may get a little modest bump on the Republican side in the Senate primary, because of the money spent on advertising.  But even there, Senate primaries typically are not big attention grabbers.” 

On the Democratic side, the big statewide draw is the race for the Attorney General nomination between Kathleen Kane and Patrick Murphy. 

State party officials appear to be a bit more optimistic about voter turnout on Tuesday.  A spokeswoman for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania says other states have already tracked greater numbers of primary voters than in the 2008 primary cycle, and a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party estimates they’ll see 30 – 40% turnout among Pennsylvania Democrats. 

Voters can brush up on the primary ballots and confirm their polling places online.  The polls will be open from 7am – 8pm on Tuesday.

Santorum Ends Presidential Bid in Pennsylvania

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Former Pennsylvania U. S. Senator Rick Santorum has suspended his campaign for the GOP presidential nomination in the same state where he started it last June.  Santorum announced on Tuesday in Gettysburg that he would suspend his race for the White House.

Santorum won 11 primaries, but front runner Mitt Romney had won the largest share of the delegates so far. His exit comes just two weeks before the Pennsylvania primary.

Santorum told reporters while the presidential race is over for him, he won’t give up the fight to keep President Obama from achieving a second term. Santorum did not endorse Romney at his press conference and left without answering questions from reporters.

Romney Wins Illinois, Rick Santorum Fights On

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    Rick Santorum was in Gettysburg last night to watch returns from the Illinois primary. While Mitt Romney would take the contest, Santorum spoke to supporters, once again claiming that he is the only viable candidate to run against President Obama in the fall.

    Romney’s win Tuesday dampens some of the momentum Santorum enjoyed after last week’s victories in Mississippi and Alabama, but the scene shifts back to the south this weekend as Louisiana holds its primary on Saturday. Santorum has shown a lead in that state in recent polls.

    Following Louisiana, there will be a 10-day break before voters in Maryland, Wisconsin and D.C. go to the polls on April 3rd. Pennsylvania votes on April 24th.

Poll: Santorum has Big Lead in Pennsylvania

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Fresh off of primary victories in Alabama and Mississippi, a new poll shows former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum virtually running away with the Keystone State.  Today’s Quinnipiac Poll of Pennsylvania Republicans shows Santorum netting 36% support compared to Mitt Romney’s 22%.  In a head-to-head matchup, Santorum clobbers Romney in Pennsylvania 53 – 32%.  “Pennsylvania Republicans are turning to their native son, former Sen. Rick Santorum,” says pollster Tim Malloy.  But it’s in stark contrast to the December Quinnipiac Poll that showed Santorum with mere 9% support in PA. 

On the same day as the release of the Q-Poll, the Romney campaign announced that former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge is throwing his support behind the former Massachusetts governor. 

Pennsylvania’s current Republican governor, however, remains neutral in the race.  “I will certainly be active once we have the nominee at the convention and thereafter,” Gov. Tom Corbett explains.  “What role I play before the primary still remains to be seen.” 

Santorum has named longtime Corbett political adviser Brian Nutt as his Pennsylvania State Campaign Director.  “Do not read anything into that,” Corbett says. 

But Corbett does remind all Pennsylvanians to never underestimate Rick Santorum.  “I think if I polled you all, he has gone much further than anybody sitting on those chairs right there ever anticipated that he would go,” Corbett told reporters who were gathered in the Governor’s Reception Room for a briefing on an upcoming trade mission.

Rick Santorum Takes Three States, GOP Race Continues

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    Rick Santorum won three states on Super Tuesday, tasting victory in North Dakota, Tennessee and Oklahoma. The former Pennsylvania Senator fell just short of taking the key state of Ohio, finishing a very close second to Mitt Romney.

    Romney won six states on Tuesday, including Massachusetts, where he served as governor. Newt Gingrich won his home state of Georgia. Ron Paul was shut out, winning no states and only picking up a little more than 20 delegates.

    Santorum’s showing on Tuesday means the race for the GOP nomination continues. The focus now shifts to Kansas, which holds it caucuses on Saturday. Then it’s on to Alabama’s primary on March 13th. Pennsylvania Republicans go to the polls on April 24th, and with every Santorum win, it’s looking more and more like the primary race will still be undecided once the vote comes to the Keystone State. If so, it would be the second time in the last two elections that Pennsylvania’s primary mattered. In 2008, the hotly-contested Democratic race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton gave us six weeks of heavy campaigning in the Commonwealth.

 

Super Tuesday Showdown

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    Voters in ten states go to the polls today for their primary elections. Of course, all eyes are on the GOP presidential primary, as Republicans today have the chance to send a clear message about who they want to run against President Obama this fall.

    Much of the attention today will be on neighboring Ohio, where front-runners Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney have been neck-and-neck in the polls heading into today’s vote. Romney is coming off a win in the Washington caucuses last weekend, while Santorum is hoping to regain his February momentum by appealing to the most conservative wing of the party.

    The other states voting on this Super Tuesday are Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. Pennsyvania’s primary will be held April 24th.

 

Santorum Falls Short in Arizona & Michigan

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    The roller coaster ride that is the 2012 Republican presidential primary season continued Tuesday with votes in Arizona and Michigan. The Michigan primary was of particular interest as it is Mitt Romney’s home state, where his father served as governor.

    On Tuesday, Romney got exactly what he needed: a double victory over the surging Rick Santorum. Romney topped Santorum by about 3 points in Michigan and defeated him soundly in Arizona. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were distant also-rans in each contest. Santorum’s campaign had stumbled a bit in recent weeks over the contraception issue and his campign tactics in Michigan, which Romney called “a new low.” Santorum funded robo-calls to democrats, urging them to switch parties to vote against Romney. Michigan’s primary is open to all voters, meaning a voter can request either party’s ballot in a primary election.

    Santorum vows to continue his campaign. Next up, the Washington state caucuses on March 3rd and then Super Tuesday on March 6th. That’s when voters in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming go to the polls.

New Franklin and Marshall College Poll Shows Santorum with Large Lead in Pennsylvania

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The latest Franklin and Marshall College poll shows Senator Rick Santorum with a large lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania.   Poll Director Terry Madonna says the 45% to 16% advantage is evidence the Santorum surge has hit the former Senator’s state.

But Madonna says the race in Pennsylvania is still volatile.  When they asked Santorum and Romney supporters if they planned to stick with their candidate or if they were still making up their minds, 46% say they are still making up their minds.  Madonna says Santorum and Romney are the second choice among the other’s supporters, showing it’s a two person race.

Madonna adds that the November contest could be close in Pennsylvania as well.  In the poll taken this month, President Obama’s lead on Santorum was down to 7% in the state, while Romney trails the president by 8%.

Madonna says Santorum could face problems in a match up with President Obama over his socially conservative positions.  He says those issues were a problem with swing voters in 2006, when Santorum lost re-election to the U. S. Senate to Bob Casey in Pennsylvania.

Madonna says when asked whether President Obama deserves re-election, a majority of voters in Pennsylvania do not feel he does, but that gap is closing. He says the President’s job numbers are getting a little better in the state. The number of voters saying it’s time for a change has slipped under 50%.

Meanwhile, on state issues, just a third of those polled believe Pennsylvania is heading in the right and 56%   feel things are off on the wrong track. 

Madonna says when the voters are asked about Governor Tom Corbett’s ability to handle the state’s budget problems, 55% were very or somewhat confident.

Still, 66% strongly oppose reducing funding for local school districts. Madonna says almost half of those polled favor a combination of budget cuts and tax increases to balance the budget. The poll shows strong support for new taxes on smokeless tobacco and cigars.

PA Primary Election

Many Choices in New Hampshire Primary

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Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum may be getting most of the ink in the buildup to next week’s New Hampshire primary, but theirs are just two of the 30-names that will appear on the Granite State’s GOP presidential primary ballot. 

Ballot access is relatively easy in New Hampshire, where citizen candidates like Bear Betzler can find themselves doing much more than participating in democracy.  Betzler, a management consultant from Philadelphia, is the sixth name listed on New Hampshire’s Republican primary ballot.  “My name’s in just as big of letters as Mitt Romney’s,” Betzler tells us.  “The box that you get to cross off is just as big as Rick Santorum’s or anybody else’s.” 

Betzler believes Americans are fed up with partisan bickering in Washington, and he wants to set aside divisive social issues to focus on the nation’s massive debt.  “You don’t run into anyone who says this isn’t a problem.  So we all agree on it, but no one is working on practical solutions.” 

No matter how many votes Betzler tallies on Tuesday, he already views the experience as a success, and points out New Hampshire residents welcome lesser known candidates with open arms. 

Betzler isn’t the only Pennsylvanian taking advantage of the opportunity to have his voice heard on a national stage.  Longtime state Senator Stewart Greenleaf (R-Bucks/Montgomery) will also compete in next Tuesday’s New Hampshire GOP presidential primary.  Greenleaf’s been a state lawmaker since 1977.

Rick Santorum Finishes a Strong 2nd in Iowa

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    Rick Santorum proved on Tuesday night that you don’t have to finish in first place to score a victory. His strong and surprising 2nd-place finish in the Iowa caucuses has earned him new respect and the attention of talking heads throughout the political world. In a near photo-finish, Santorum finished just 8 votes behind Mitt Romney, making it the closest finish in the history of the Iowa caucuses (30,015-to-30,007).

    Santorum still faces serious fundraising issues heading into New Hampshire, but a similar strong showing there could vault Santorum’s status and his bank account.

    In Iowa, Santorum was lifted by the evangelical Christian vote, a block that does not have the same level of influence in New Hampshire, but the former Pennsylvania Senator has spent more time in the Granite State than just about any other GOP candidate in the past year. We’ll find out on Tuesday of next week if Santorum’s strong showing in Iowa provides enough momentum to lift him to similar results in New Hampshire’s primary.

    Santorum is wasting no time in making his final-week push in New Hampshire. He’s scheduled to appear at a town hall meeting tonight in Brentwood.